We Might Be All Alone After All
New analysis raises doubts about extraterrestrial life.
Summary: Scientists involved in the search for extraterrestrial
intelligence (SETI) have said there may be about 10,000
technologically advanced civilizations in our galaxy currently sending
signals our way, and that we’ll detect their signals within two decades.
However, a new analysis of this possibility has cast doubt on the whole
idea.
SETI scientists have been relying on something called the Drake
Equation. Formulated in the 1960s by Frank Drake of the SETI
Institute, it considers the number of stars, the fraction of them likely to
have planets, the fraction of those which are habitable, the probability
life arose on such planets, and the likelihood this life would be
intelligent. The values of all these factors are highly speculative, but
Drake and other SETI scientists have been relying on them in making
their predictions.
Their optimism has depended in particular on one factor — the chances
life will arise on a habitable planet (one with water, rocky surfaces and
atmosphere) is almost always calculated to be 100%. Because
fundamental laws apply to the entire universe, and because those laws
supposedly caused the genesis of life on Earth, they must have
caused life to arise elsewhere, too.
In a new paper published on arXiv.org, Princeton’s astrophysicist David
Spiegel and physicist Edwin Turner of the U. of Tokyo believe this
thinking is wrong. Using a statistical method called Bayesian reasoning,
they argue there is no more reason to assume intelligent life is common
than to conclude it is extremely rare. If life had not fortunately arisen
rapidly on earth, they say, intelligent life wouldn’t have had enough
time to “evolve“ here. Therefore our “good luck” should not affect the
probability of life emerging elsewhere.
"Although life began on this planet fairly soon after the Earth became
habitable, this fact is consistent with … life being arbitrarily rare in the
Universe," the authors state. In the paper, they prove this statement
mathematically. While not denying there could be extraterrestrial life,
they claim there’s no reason to think this is the case. They say if we
had a second data point — proof that life arose independently on
Mars, for instance — scientists would then be more justified in saying
that, under the right conditions, the genesis of life is inevitable.
To read the entire article, click on YAHOO NEWS/SPACE.COM.
Comment: Finally, a bit of common sense in the whole E.T. debate.
And these two secular scientists haven’t even considered the biggest
factor of all — there is currently no scientific explanation for how life can
arise out of non-life, and that situation likely will never change. In other
words, it takes a Creator to create life. The Creator could put life on
several planets, if He so chose, or on only one. This factor throws the
whole Drake Equation out the window.
Curiosity is a normal human emotion. It is not surprising that we wonder
what is out there in deep space. Even for religious people, there are
questions. Why are there apparently so many planets orbiting so many
stars if they weren’t intended to support life? However, just because
God hasn’t given us the answer, we can’t jump to conclusions.
Our focus needs to be on the one planet where we know there is life,
intelligent life. When Jesus gave us the Great Commission — “Therefore
go and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the
Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit” (Matthew 28:19), He was
talking about our world. Astronomy and science fiction can be
interesting hobbies and for some people, professions. But for Christians,
our duty is to spread the happy news that salvation is available for
anyone and everyone here on our planet. If we do not foolishly reject
the gifts of forgiveness and eternal life offered to us by Jesus through
His suffering and death on the cross for our sins, we will one day see
and experience life in the one extraterrestrial world with intelligent life
which we do know truly does exist — heaven.
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QUESTION OF THE DAY
We may know what megabytes and gigabytes are, but what is an
exabyte?
***************************************************************************
1 Comment
Gerhold L. Lemke wrote: Warren - Your "Question of the day" topics
show that you have good resources to draw on. When will you inform
yourself on "Gobekli Tepe" (Newsweek, Smithosonian, National
Geographic) via Google and deal with my question? It is: Why couldn't
this be the city "Enoch" built by Cain's people in Genesis?
We want the Bible to be true. Or are you going with the error of
Delugism, which supposes the the geology here couldn't have existed
as such before the Flood? GLL
NOTE ON VISITOR COMMENTS: Visitor comments are invited including
those containing alternate views. However, comments containing
profanity or advertisements will not be published. After posting a
comment, please allow several hours for it to appear on the blog.
New analysis raises doubts about extraterrestrial life.
Summary: Scientists involved in the search for extraterrestrial
intelligence (SETI) have said there may be about 10,000
technologically advanced civilizations in our galaxy currently sending
signals our way, and that we’ll detect their signals within two decades.
However, a new analysis of this possibility has cast doubt on the whole
idea.
SETI scientists have been relying on something called the Drake
Equation. Formulated in the 1960s by Frank Drake of the SETI
Institute, it considers the number of stars, the fraction of them likely to
have planets, the fraction of those which are habitable, the probability
life arose on such planets, and the likelihood this life would be
intelligent. The values of all these factors are highly speculative, but
Drake and other SETI scientists have been relying on them in making
their predictions.
Their optimism has depended in particular on one factor — the chances
life will arise on a habitable planet (one with water, rocky surfaces and
atmosphere) is almost always calculated to be 100%. Because
fundamental laws apply to the entire universe, and because those laws
supposedly caused the genesis of life on Earth, they must have
caused life to arise elsewhere, too.
In a new paper published on arXiv.org, Princeton’s astrophysicist David
Spiegel and physicist Edwin Turner of the U. of Tokyo believe this
thinking is wrong. Using a statistical method called Bayesian reasoning,
they argue there is no more reason to assume intelligent life is common
than to conclude it is extremely rare. If life had not fortunately arisen
rapidly on earth, they say, intelligent life wouldn’t have had enough
time to “evolve“ here. Therefore our “good luck” should not affect the
probability of life emerging elsewhere.
"Although life began on this planet fairly soon after the Earth became
habitable, this fact is consistent with … life being arbitrarily rare in the
Universe," the authors state. In the paper, they prove this statement
mathematically. While not denying there could be extraterrestrial life,
they claim there’s no reason to think this is the case. They say if we
had a second data point — proof that life arose independently on
Mars, for instance — scientists would then be more justified in saying
that, under the right conditions, the genesis of life is inevitable.
To read the entire article, click on YAHOO NEWS/SPACE.COM.
Comment: Finally, a bit of common sense in the whole E.T. debate.
And these two secular scientists haven’t even considered the biggest
factor of all — there is currently no scientific explanation for how life can
arise out of non-life, and that situation likely will never change. In other
words, it takes a Creator to create life. The Creator could put life on
several planets, if He so chose, or on only one. This factor throws the
whole Drake Equation out the window.
Curiosity is a normal human emotion. It is not surprising that we wonder
what is out there in deep space. Even for religious people, there are
questions. Why are there apparently so many planets orbiting so many
stars if they weren’t intended to support life? However, just because
God hasn’t given us the answer, we can’t jump to conclusions.
Our focus needs to be on the one planet where we know there is life,
intelligent life. When Jesus gave us the Great Commission — “Therefore
go and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the
Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit” (Matthew 28:19), He was
talking about our world. Astronomy and science fiction can be
interesting hobbies and for some people, professions. But for Christians,
our duty is to spread the happy news that salvation is available for
anyone and everyone here on our planet. If we do not foolishly reject
the gifts of forgiveness and eternal life offered to us by Jesus through
His suffering and death on the cross for our sins, we will one day see
and experience life in the one extraterrestrial world with intelligent life
which we do know truly does exist — heaven.
PRINT (Black type on white background)
***************************************************************************
Want to be automatically notified each time there is a new
post? Just e-mail your request to [admin@lutheranscience.org].
***************************************************************************
QUESTION OF THE DAY
We may know what megabytes and gigabytes are, but what is an
exabyte?
***************************************************************************
1 Comment
Gerhold L. Lemke wrote: Warren - Your "Question of the day" topics
show that you have good resources to draw on. When will you inform
yourself on "Gobekli Tepe" (Newsweek, Smithosonian, National
Geographic) via Google and deal with my question? It is: Why couldn't
this be the city "Enoch" built by Cain's people in Genesis?
We want the Bible to be true. Or are you going with the error of
Delugism, which supposes the the geology here couldn't have existed
as such before the Flood? GLL
NOTE ON VISITOR COMMENTS: Visitor comments are invited including
those containing alternate views. However, comments containing
profanity or advertisements will not be published. After posting a
comment, please allow several hours for it to appear on the blog.
Friday, July 29, 2011 Prefer to read this post in Blogspot? Click Here. PRINT
An exabyte is 10 to the 18th power bytes or a
billion gigabytes. As of 2007 humans had the
capacity to store 295 exabytes of information.
A stack of CDs storing 295 exabytes of
information would reach beyond the moon.
Source: www.discovermagazine.com (2/11/11)
billion gigabytes. As of 2007 humans had the
capacity to store 295 exabytes of information.
A stack of CDs storing 295 exabytes of
information would reach beyond the moon.
Source: www.discovermagazine.com (2/11/11)
The opinions expressed
here are those of The
Editor and do not
necessarily represent
the views of the Lutheran
Science Institute. Please
note that links in older
posts may be broken.
here are those of The
Editor and do not
necessarily represent
the views of the Lutheran
Science Institute. Please
note that links in older
posts may be broken.
About Me - Warren Krug
The Editor
Decades ago I attended a
so-called Lutheran
university where I could
have lost my faith. The
science professors promoted
the theory of evolution and
made fun of anybody who
believed in the account of
creation as presented in
the book of Genesis.
Thanks be to God, some
creationist literature and
the Bible soon helped get
me back on the right track.
Ever since then I have
taken an active interest in
the creation/evolution
controversy.
Background image from NASA
The Editor
Decades ago I attended a
so-called Lutheran
university where I could
have lost my faith. The
science professors promoted
the theory of evolution and
made fun of anybody who
believed in the account of
creation as presented in
the book of Genesis.
Thanks be to God, some
creationist literature and
the Bible soon helped get
me back on the right track.
Ever since then I have
taken an active interest in
the creation/evolution
controversy.
Background image from NASA
