Warmer Summers, Cooler Winters
Scientists struggle to understand why warmer summers
often lead to cooler winters.
Summary: Warmer summers in the far Northern Hemisphere are the
cause for the more frequent severe winter weather in the U. S. and
Europe, a team of scientists says. Blizzards and extreme cold
temperatures during the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 caused
such widespread travel woes in the U. S. and Europe, some people
were led to question the theory of global warming.
Judah Cohen, lead author of a study published in Environmental
Research Letters, found a clear trend of strong Arctic warming during
summer months, which should have resulted in a warmer winter as well.
This was not always the case. The counter-intuitive discovery suggests
the world’s climate system may be more complex than previously
thought. The large-scale cooling trends seen in eastern North America
and Northern Eurasia over the past two decades are likely not due to
internal variability alone, according to the scientists.
Using temperature, rainfall, snow and ice data, the team found rising
summer temperatures in the Arctic allowed the atmosphere to hold more
moisture, leading to more autumn snow in high-latitude areas. The
increased snow cover in Eurasia caused changes in the Arctic
Oscillation (atmospheric pressure patterns that govern winter weather
in the far Northern Hemisphere).
When the oscillation is in a negative phase, high pressure cells over the
Arctic push colder air towards mid-latitudes resulting in colder
temperatures than normal and fierce snow storms. A positive phase
tends to bring in milder winter weather, which is the case at present in
the U. S. and Europe.
The winter cooling trends are complex and need more study. However,
Cohen said their discovery could improve long-range forecasting if
snow cover is included in a seasonal forecast. The team’s research is
just one of several recent studies that highlight the complexity of the
climate system. Scientists are still learning how much mankind and
natural factors can influence long-term patterns.
To read the entire article, click on YAHOO NEWS.
Comment: Today’s key word is “complex.” By relying on recent past
data and analyzing present data, with the help of computers scientists
who study the weather can come up with simulations to predict future
weather trends. It is no secret that most simulations suggest that the
globe is warming up.
However, this story indicates that the total picture may be more complex
than some scientists are willing to admit. There appear to be a lot of
factors which aren’t being considered and which need to be considered
for scientists to be able to make more accurate forecasts of future
weather trends. If scientists are struggling to understand something as
relatively simple as present weather trends (compared to very complex
things like living organisms), they must avoid being too dogmatic in
making their predictions.
The point is that if conditions in the present are so complex that it is
difficult to completely understand them, how can those scientists who
study the distant, murky past be so sure they understand what
conditions were like way back then? In other words, are not
paleontologists and anthropologists and all those other “ologists” who
are so confidently telling us what the world and its living creatures were
like “millions” and “billions” of years ago overstating their case?
The faith of countless number of believers has been threatened and
even destroyed by the arrogant scientists who look at the past and tell
us that they pretty much know what the earth was like long ago, that
living organisms began with single-celled organisms and now have
evolved into human beings, and that there is no need for a Creator or
an Intelligent Designer.
However, the complexity of the world in which we are living and
especially the complexity of the living creatures around us challenges
the idea that the universe and its living organisms could possibly be the
result of blind, random processes. Let us stick with the Bible, which
gives us the true account of Earth’s history by the One who was there.
He tells us how we got here and where we are going. If we have come to
trust in the Son of God, Jesus Christ, for our salvation, where we are
going is heaven, a place where “perfection” is a key word. “I desire to
depart and be with Christ, which is better by far” (Philippians 1:23).
Scientists struggle to understand why warmer summers
often lead to cooler winters.
Summary: Warmer summers in the far Northern Hemisphere are the
cause for the more frequent severe winter weather in the U. S. and
Europe, a team of scientists says. Blizzards and extreme cold
temperatures during the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 caused
such widespread travel woes in the U. S. and Europe, some people
were led to question the theory of global warming.
Judah Cohen, lead author of a study published in Environmental
Research Letters, found a clear trend of strong Arctic warming during
summer months, which should have resulted in a warmer winter as well.
This was not always the case. The counter-intuitive discovery suggests
the world’s climate system may be more complex than previously
thought. The large-scale cooling trends seen in eastern North America
and Northern Eurasia over the past two decades are likely not due to
internal variability alone, according to the scientists.
Using temperature, rainfall, snow and ice data, the team found rising
summer temperatures in the Arctic allowed the atmosphere to hold more
moisture, leading to more autumn snow in high-latitude areas. The
increased snow cover in Eurasia caused changes in the Arctic
Oscillation (atmospheric pressure patterns that govern winter weather
in the far Northern Hemisphere).
When the oscillation is in a negative phase, high pressure cells over the
Arctic push colder air towards mid-latitudes resulting in colder
temperatures than normal and fierce snow storms. A positive phase
tends to bring in milder winter weather, which is the case at present in
the U. S. and Europe.
The winter cooling trends are complex and need more study. However,
Cohen said their discovery could improve long-range forecasting if
snow cover is included in a seasonal forecast. The team’s research is
just one of several recent studies that highlight the complexity of the
climate system. Scientists are still learning how much mankind and
natural factors can influence long-term patterns.
To read the entire article, click on YAHOO NEWS.
Comment: Today’s key word is “complex.” By relying on recent past
data and analyzing present data, with the help of computers scientists
who study the weather can come up with simulations to predict future
weather trends. It is no secret that most simulations suggest that the
globe is warming up.
However, this story indicates that the total picture may be more complex
than some scientists are willing to admit. There appear to be a lot of
factors which aren’t being considered and which need to be considered
for scientists to be able to make more accurate forecasts of future
weather trends. If scientists are struggling to understand something as
relatively simple as present weather trends (compared to very complex
things like living organisms), they must avoid being too dogmatic in
making their predictions.
The point is that if conditions in the present are so complex that it is
difficult to completely understand them, how can those scientists who
study the distant, murky past be so sure they understand what
conditions were like way back then? In other words, are not
paleontologists and anthropologists and all those other “ologists” who
are so confidently telling us what the world and its living creatures were
like “millions” and “billions” of years ago overstating their case?
The faith of countless number of believers has been threatened and
even destroyed by the arrogant scientists who look at the past and tell
us that they pretty much know what the earth was like long ago, that
living organisms began with single-celled organisms and now have
evolved into human beings, and that there is no need for a Creator or
an Intelligent Designer.
However, the complexity of the world in which we are living and
especially the complexity of the living creatures around us challenges
the idea that the universe and its living organisms could possibly be the
result of blind, random processes. Let us stick with the Bible, which
gives us the true account of Earth’s history by the One who was there.
He tells us how we got here and where we are going. If we have come to
trust in the Son of God, Jesus Christ, for our salvation, where we are
going is heaven, a place where “perfection” is a key word. “I desire to
depart and be with Christ, which is better by far” (Philippians 1:23).
LSI Blog - Monday, Jan. 18, 2012
